Caldeira Lab Publication List


Duan L, Cao L, Caldeira K. 2019. Estimating contributions of sea ice and land snow to climate feedback. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres. 124(1):199-208. Doi:

Koweek DA, Forden A, Albright R, Takeshita Y, Mucciarone DA, Ninokawa A, Caldeira K. 2019. Carbon Isotopic Fractionation in Organic Matter Production Consistent With Benthic Community Composition Across a Coral Reef Flat. Frontiers in Marine Science. doi:



Albright R, Takeshita Y,  Koweek DA, Ninokawa A, Wolfe K, Rivlin T, Nebuchina Y, Young J, Caldeira K. 2018: Carbon dioxide addition to coral reef waters suppresses net community calcification. Naturevolume 555, pages 516–519.

Cyronak T, Andersson AJ. Langdon C, Albright R, Bates NR, Caldeira K, Carlton R, Corredor JE, Dunbar RB, Enochs I, Erez, J Eyre BD, Gattuso J, Gledhill D, Kayanne H, Kline DI, Koweek, DA, Lantz C, Lazar B, Manzello D., McMahon A, Meléndez M, Page HN, Santos IR, Schulz KG, Shaw E, Silverman J, Suzuki A, Teneva L, Watanabe A, Yamamoto S, 2018: Taking the metabolic pulse of the world’s coral reefs. PLoS ONE13(1), e0190872.

Davis SJ, Lewis NS, Shaner M, Aggarwal S, Arent D, Azevedo IL, Benson SM, Bradley T, Brouwer J, Chiang Y-M, Clack CTM, Cohen A, Doig S, Edmonds J, Fennell P, Field CB, Hannegan B, Hodge B-M, Hoffert MI, Ingersoll E, Jaramillo P, Lackner KS, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea M, Ogden J, Peterson PF Sanchez DL, Sperling D, Stagner J, Trancik JE, Yang C-J, Caldeira K. 2018. Net-zero emissions energy systems. Science Volume 360 Issue 6396 eaas 9793.

Koweek D, Zimmerman RC, Hewett, KM, Gaylord B, Siddings SN, Nickols KJ, Ruesink JL, Stachowicz JJ, Takeshita Y, Caldeira K. 2018 Expected limits on the ocean acidification buffering potential of a temperate seagrass meadow  Ecological Applications  early view:21

Li C, Fang Y, Caldeira K, Zhang X, Diffenbaugh NS, Michalak A. 2018. Widespread persistent changes to temperature extremes occurred earlier than predicted. Scientific Reports. Volume 8, Article number 1007.

Modak A, G. Bala G, Caldeira K, Cao L. 2018: Does shortwave absorption by methane influence its effectiveness? Clim Dyn, pp 1-20.

Persad G and Caldeira, K. 2018: Divergent global-scale temperature effects from identical aerosols emitted in different regions Nature Communications volume 9, Article number: 3289

Possner A, Wang H, Wood R, Caldeira K, Ackerman TP. 2018. The efficacy of aerosol-cloud radiative perturbations from near-surface emissions in deep open-call stratocumuli. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 18(23):17475-17488

Praetorius S, Rugenstein M, Persad G, Caldeira K. 2018 Global and Arctic climate sensitivity enhanced by changes in North Pacific heat flux Nature Communications volume 9, Article number: 3124 

Rampino M, Caldeira K. 2018. Comparison of the ages of large-body impacts, flood-basalt eruptions, ocean-anoxic events and extinctions over the last 26 million years: a statistical study. International Journal of Earth Sciences. 107(2): 601-606. Doi:

Ricke K, Drouet L, Caldeira K, Tanoni M. 2018. County-level social cost of carbon. Nature Climate Change 8(10): 895

Shaner MR, Davis SJ, Lewis NS, K. Caldeira, 2018: Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power in the United StatesEnergy and Environmental science. doi:


Ahbe, E. and K. Caldeira, 2017: Spatial Distribution of Generation of Lorenz’s Available Potential Energy in a Global Climate Model. J. Climate30, 2089–2101,

Brown, P. and K. Caldeira, 2017: Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget. Nature552, 45–50, doi:10.1038/nature24672

Cao, L., L. Duan, G. Bala, and K. Caldeira, 2017: Simultaneous stabilization of global temperature and precipitation through cocktail geoengineering Geophys. Res. Lett.44, 7429–7437 doi:10.1002/2017GL074281.

Clack C.T.M., Qvist S.A., Apt J., Bazilian M., Brandt A.R., Caldeira K., Davis S.J., Diakov V., Handschy M.A., Hines P.D.H., Jaramillo P., Kammen D.M., Long J.C.S., Morgan M.G., Reed A., Sivaram V., Sweeney J., Tynan G.R., Victor D.G., Weyant J.P., Whitacre J.F., 2017: Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A doi: 10.1073/pnas.1610381114.

Chan, G., A.P. Goldstein, A. Bin-Nun, L.D. Anadon & V. Narayanamurti, 2017: Six principles for energy innovation. Nature552, 25-27. doi: 10.1038/d41586-017-07761-0

DeJong, H. B., R. B. Dunbar, D. A. Koweek, D. A. Mucciarone, S. K. Bercovici, and D. A. Hansell., 2017: Net community production and carbon export during the late summer in the Ross Sea, Antarctica Global Biogeochem. Cycles31, 473–491, doi:10.1002/2016GB005417.

Glassmeier, F., A. Possner, B. Vogel, H. Vogel, U. Lohmann, 2017: A comparison of two chemistry and aerosol schemes on the regional scale and resulting impact on radiative properties and warm and cold aerosol-cloud interactions Atm. Chem. Phys., doi:10.5194/acp-17-8651-2017.

Koweek, D. A., Nickols, K. J., Leary, P. R., Litvin, S. Y., Bell, T. W., Luthin, T., Dunbar, R. B., 2017: A year in the life of a central california kelp forest: Physical and biological insights into biogeochemical variability Biogeosciences14(1), 31-44,

Persad, G.G., D.J. Paynter, Y. Ming, and V. Ramaswamy, 2017: Competing Atmospheric and Surface-Driven Impacts of Absorbing Aerosols on the East Asian Summertime Climate. J. Climate30, 8929–8949,

Possner, A., and K. Caldeira, 2017: Geophysical potential for wind energy over the open oceans PNAS 114, 43, 11338-11343 doi:10.1073/pnas.1705710114.

Possner, A., A. M. L. Ekman, and U. Lohmann, 2017: Cloud response and feedback processes in stratiform mixed-phase clouds perturbed by ship exhaust Geophys. Res. Lett.,44, doi:10.1002/2016GL071358.

Rampino, M.R. & Caldeira, K., 2017: Comparison of the ages of large-body impacts, flood-basalt eruptions, ocean-anoxic events and extinctions over the last 260 million years: a statistical study Int J Earth Sci (Geol Rundsch),

Rampino, M.R. & Caldeira, K., 2017: Correlation of the largest craters, stratigraphic impact signatures, and extinction events over the past 250 Myr Geoscience Frontiers8 (6) 1241-1245

Rogers, J.S., Stephen G. Monismith, Oliver B. Fringer, David A. Koweek, Robert B. Dunbar, 2017: A coupled wave-hydrodynamic model of an atoll with high friction: Mechanisms for flow, connectivity, and ecological implications Ocean Modelling110, 66-82,

Shayegh, S., D. L. Sanchez and K. Caldeira, 2017: Evaluating relative benefits of different types of R&D for clean energy technologies. Energy Policy107,

Wang, R., J. Moreno-Cruz, and K. Caldeira, 2017: Will the use of a carbon tax for revenue generation produce an incentive to continue carbon emissions? Environmental Research Letters12,


Albright, R., L. Caldeira, J. Hosfelt, L. Kwiatkowski, J. Maclaren, B. Mason, Y. Nebuchina, A. Ninokawa, J. Pongratz, K. Ricke, T. Rivlin, K. Schneider, M. Sesboüé, K. Shamberger, J. Silverman, K. Wolfe, K. Zhu, & K. Caldeira, 2016: Reversal of ocean acidification enhances net coral reef calcification. Nature, doi:10.1038/nature17155.

Cao, L., L. Duan, G. Bala, and K. Caldeira ,2016: Simulated long-term climate response to idealized solar geoengineering. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL068079.

Devaraju, N., G. Bala, K. Caldeira, and R. Nemani, 2016: A model based investigation of the relative importance of CO2-fertilization, climate warming, nitrogen deposition and land use change on the global terrestrial carbon uptake in the historical period. Clim. Dynam., 47, 173–190, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2830-8.

Kwiatkowski, L., B. Gaylord, T. Hill, J. Hosfelt, K. J. Kroeker, Y. Nebuchina, A. Ninokawa, A. Russell, E. B. Rivest, M. Sesboüé & K. Caldeira, 2016: Nighttime dissolution in a temperate coastal ocean ecosystem increases under acidification. Scientific Reports, doi: 10.1038/srep22984.

Modak, A., G. Bala, L. Cao & K. Caldeira, 2016: Why must a solar forcing be larger than a CO 2 forcing to cause the same global mean surface temperature change? Environ. Res. Lett.11, 044013, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044013.

Rugenstein, MAA, K Caldeira, R Knutti, 2016: Dependence of global radiative feedbacks on evolving patterns of surface heat fluxes Geophysical Research Letters43 (18), 9877-9885

Shayegh, S, J Moreno-Cruz, K Caldeira, 2016: Adapting to rates versus amounts of climate change: a case of adaptation to sea-level rise. Environmental Research Letters11 (10)

Shearer, C., M. West, K. Caldeira, and S. J. Davis, 2016: Quantifying expert consensus against the existence of a secret, large-scale atmospheric spraying program. Environmental Research Letters11, 084011, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084011.


Ricke, K. L., J. B. Moreno-Cruz, J. Schewe, A. Levermann, and K. Caldeira, 2015: Policy thresholds in mitigation. Nature Geosciadvance online publication, doi:10.1038/ngeo2607.

Caldeira, K., 2015: Stop Emissions! A climate scientist argues that it should no longer be acceptable to dump carbon dioxide in the sky. MIT Technology Review [Available online at].

Zhang, X., N. P. Myhrvold, Z. Hausfather, and K. Caldeira, 2015: Climate benefits of natural gas as a bridge fuel and potential delay of near-zero energy systemsApplied Energy, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.10.016.

Winkelmann, R., A. Levermann, A. Ridgwell, and K. Caldeira, 2015: Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Science Advances1, e1500589, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1500589.

Petri, Y., and K. Caldeira, 2015: Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States. Sci. Rep.5, doi:10.1038/srep12427.

Mathesius, S., M. Hofmann, K. Caldeira, and H. J. Schellnhuber, 2015: Long-term response of oceans to CO2 removal from the atmosphere. Nature Clim. Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2729.

Albright, R., J. Benthuysen, N. Cantin, K. Caldeira, and K. Anthony, 2015: Coral reef metabolism and carbon chemistry dynamics of a coral reef flat. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/2015GL063488.

Cvijanovic, I., K. Caldeira, and D. G. MacMartin, 2015: Impacts of ocean albedo alteration on Arctic sea ice restoration and Northern Hemisphere climate. Environ. Res. Lett.10, 044020, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044020.

Kline, D. I., and Coauthors, 2015: Six Month In Situ High-Resolution Carbonate Chemistry and Temperature Study on a Coral Reef Flat Reveals Asynchronous pH and Temperature Anomalies. PLOS ONE10, e0127648, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0127648.

Kwiatkowski, L., K. L. Ricke, and K. Caldeira, 2015: Atmospheric consequences of disruption of the ocean thermocline. Environ. Res. Lett.10, 034016, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/034016.

Cvijanovic, I., and K. Caldeira, 2015: Atmospheric impacts of sea ice decline in CO2 induced global warming. Clim Dyn1–14, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2489-1.

Zhang, X., and K. Caldeira, 2015: Time scales and ratios of climate forcing due to thermal versus carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2015GL063514, doi:10.1002/2015GL063514.


Ricke, K. L., and K. Caldeira, 2014: Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission. Environ. Res. Lett.9, 124002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002.

Zhang, X., N. P. Myhrvold, and K. Caldeira, 2014: Key factors for assessing climate benefits of natural gas versus coal electricity generation. Environ. Res. Lett.9, 114022, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114022.

MacMartin, D. G., K. Caldeira, and D. W. Keith, 2014: Solar geoengineering to limit the rate of temperature change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A372, 20140134, doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0134.

Caro, D., A. LoPresti, S. J. Davis, S. Bastianoni, and K. Caldeira, 2014: CH4 and N2O emissions embodied in international trade of meat. Environ. Res. Lett.9, 114005, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114005.

Caldeira, K., and I. Cvijanovic, 2014: Estimating the Contribution of Sea Ice Response to Climate Sensitivity in a Climate Model. J. Climate27, 8597–8607, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00042.1.

Davis, S. J., J. A. Burney, J. Pongratz, and K. Caldeira, 2014: Methods for attributing land-use emissions to products. Carbon Management5, 233–245, doi:10.1080/17583004.2014.913867.

Kalidindi, S., G. Bala, A. Modak, and K. Caldeira, 2014: Modeling of solar radiation management: a comparison of simulations using reduced solar constant and stratospheric sulphate aerosols. Clim Dyn, 1–17, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2240-3.

Silverman, J., and Coauthors, 2014: Community calcification in Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef: A 33 year perspective. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, doi:10.1016/j.gca.2014.09.011.

Caro, D., S. J. Davis, S. Bastianoni, and K. Caldeira, 2014: Global and regional trends in greenhouse gas emissions from livestock. Climatic Change126, 203–216, doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1197-x.

Ricke, K. L., and K. Caldeira, 2014: Natural climate variability and future climate policy. Nature Climate Change4, 333–338, doi:10.1038/nclimate2186.



Caldeira, K., and N. P. Myhrvold, 2013: Projections of the pace of warming following an abrupt increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Environ. Res. Lett.8, 034039, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034039.

Caldeira, K., and K. L. Ricke, 2013: Prudence on solar climate engineeringNature Clim. Change3, 941–941, doi:10.1038/nclimate2036

Bala, G., N. Devaraju, R. K. Chaturvedi, K. Caldeira, and R. Nemani, 2013: Nitrogen deposition: how important is it for global terrestrial carbon uptake? Biogeosciences Discussions10, 11077–11109, doi:10.5194/bgd-10-11077-2013.

Ricke, K. L., J. C. Orr, K. Schneider, and K. Caldeira, 2013: Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections. Environmental Research Letters8, 034003, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034003.

Ciais, P., T. Gasser, J.D. Paris, K. Caldeira, M.R. Raupach, J.G. Canadell, A. Patwardhan, P. Friedlingstein, S.L. Piao, V. Gitz, 2013: Attributing the increase in atmospheric CO2 to emitters and absorbers. Nature Climate Change3, 926–930, doi:10.1038/nclimate1942.

Caldeira, K., G. Bala, and L. Cao, 2013: The Science of GeoengineeringAnnual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences41, 231–256, doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105548.

Bala, G., S. Krishna, D. Narayanappa, L. Cao, K. Caldeira, and R. Nemani, 2013: An estimate of equilibrium sensitivity of global terrestrial carbon cycle using NCAR CCSM4Climate Dynamics40, 1671–1686, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1495-9.

Hsieh, W.-C., W. D. Collins, Y. Liu, J. C. H. Chiang, C.-L. Shie, K. Caldeira, and L. Cao, 2013: Climate response due to carbonaceous aerosols and aerosol-induced SST effects in NCAR community atmospheric model CAM3.5. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions13, 7349–7396, doi:10.5194/acpd-13-7349-2013.

Caldeira, K., 2013: Coral Bleaching: Coral “refugia” amid heating seas. Nature Climate Change3, 444–445, doi:10.1038/nclimate1888.

Ricke, K. L., J. B. Moreno-Cruz, and K. Caldeira, 2013: Strategic incentives for climate geoengineering coalitions to exclude broad participation. Environmental Research Letters8, 014021, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014021.

Davis, S. J., L. Cao, K. Caldeira, and M. I. Hoffert, 2013: Rethinking wedgesEnvironmental Research Letters8, 011001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/011001.

Kravitz, B., K Caldeira, O Boucher, A Robock, PJ Rasch, K Alterskjær, DB Karam, Jason NS Cole, Charles L Curry, James M Haywood, Peter J Irvine, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Jón Egill Kristjánsson, Daniel J Lunt, John C Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Hauke Schmidt, Michael Schulz, Balwinder Singh, Simone Tilmes, Shingo Watanabe, Shuting Yang, Jin‐Ho Yoon, 2013: Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP): GEOMIP MODEL RESPONSEJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres118, 8320–8332, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50646.




MacMartin, D. G., D. W. Keith, B. Kravitz, and K. Caldeira, 2012: Management of trade-offs in geoengineering through optimal choice of non-uniform radiative forcingNature Climate Change3, 365–368, doi:10.1038/nclimate1722.

Marvel, K., B. Kravitz, and K. Caldeira, 2012: Geophysical limits to global wind power. Nature Climate Change3, 118–121, doi:10.1038/nclimate1683.

Caldeira, K., 2012: Avoiding mangrove destruction by avoiding carbon dioxide emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences109, 14287–14288, doi:10.1073/pnas.1211718109.

Cao, L., G. Bala, and K. Caldeira, 2012: Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks. Environmental Research Letters7, 034015, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034015.

Silverman, J., D. I. Kline, L. Johnson, T. Rivlin, K. Schneider, J. Erez, B. Lazar, and K. Caldeira, 2012: Carbon turnover rates in the One Tree Island reef: A 40-year perspectiveJournal of Geophysical Research117, doi:10.1029/2012JG001974.

Pongratz, J., and K. Caldeira, 2012: Attribution of atmospheric CO 2 and temperature increases to regions: importance of preindustrial land use change. Environmental Research Letters7, 034001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034001.

Caldeira, K., and N. P. Myhrvold, 2012: Temperature change vs. cumulative radiative forcing as metrics for evaluating climate consequences of energy system choices. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences109, E1813–E1813, doi:10.1073/pnas.1206019109.

MacCracken, M. C., H.-J. Shin, K. Caldeira, and G. A. Ban-Weiss, 2012: Climate response to imposed solar radiation reductions in high latitudes. Earth System Dynamics Discussions3, 715–757, doi:10.5194/esdd-3-715-2012.

Kravitz, B., D. G. MacMartin, and K. Caldeira, 2012: Geoengineering: Whiter skies? Geophysical Research Letters39, doi:10.1029/2012GL051652.

Russell, L. M., PJ Rasch, GM Mace, RB Jackson, J Shepherd, P Liss, M Leinen, D Schimel, NE Vaughan, AC Janetos, PW Boyd, RJ Norby, K Caldeira, J Merikanto, P Artaxo, J Melillo, M G Morgan, 2012: Ecosystem impacts of geoengineering: a review for developing a science plan. Ambio, 41, 350-369, doi: 10.1007/s13280-012-0258-5.

Kline, D.I., L Teneva, K Schneider, T Miard, A Chai, M Marker, K Headley, B Opdyke, M Nash, M Valetich, JK Caves, BD Russell, SD Connell, BJ Kirkwood, P Brewer, E Peltzer, J Silverman, K Caldeira, RB Dunbar, JR Koseff, SG Monismith, BG Mitchell, S Dove, O Hoegh-Guldberg, 2012: A short-term in situ CO2 enrichment experiment on Heron Island (GBR)Scientific Reports2, doi:10.1038/srep00413.

Myhrvold, N. P., and K. Caldeira, 2012: Greenhouse gases, climate change and the transition from coal to low-carbon electricity. Environmental Research Letters7, 014019, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014019.

Ban-Weiss, G. A., L. Cao, G. Bala, and K. Caldeira, 2012: Dependence of climate forcing and response on the altitude of black carbon aerosols. Climate Dynamics38, 897–911, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1052-y.

Pongratz, J., D. B. Lobell, L. Cao, and K. Caldeira, 2012: Crop yields in a geoengineered climate. Nature Climate Change2, 101–105, doi:10.1038/nclimate1373.

Caldeira, K., 2012: The Great Climate Experiment. Scientific American307, 78–83, doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0912-78.




Devaraju, N., L. Cao, G. Bala, K. Caldeira, and R. Nemani, 2011: A model investigation of vegetation-atmosphere interactions on a millennial timescale. Biogeosciences Discussions8, 8761–8780, doi:10.5194/bgd-8-8761-2011.

Schneider, K., J. Silverman, E. Woolsey, H. Eriksson, M. Byrne, and K. Caldeira, 2011:Potential influence of sea cucumbers on coral reef CaCO 3 budget: A case study at One Tree Reef. Journal of Geophysical Research116, doi:10.1029/2011JG001755.

Davis, S. J., G. P. Peters, and K. Caldeira, 2011: The Supply Chain of CO2 Emissions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 18554–18559, doi:10.1073/pnas.1107409108108.

Bala, G., K. Caldeira, R. Nemani, L. Cao, G. Ban-Weiss, and H.-J. Shin, 2011: Albedo enhancement of marine clouds to counteract global warming: impacts on the hydrological cycle. Climate Dynamics37, 915–931, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0868-1.

Pongratz, J., C. H. Reick, T. Raddatz, K. Caldeira, and M. Claussen, 2011: Past land use decisions have increased mitigation potential of reforestation. Geophysical Research Letters38, doi:10.1029/2011GL047848.

Pongratz, J., K. Caldeira, C. H. Reick, and M. Claussen, 2011: Coupled climate-carbon simulations indicate minor global effects of wars and epidemics on atmospheric CO2 between AD 800 and 1850. The Holocene21, 843–851, doi:10.1177/0959683610386981.

Anthony, K. R. N., J. A. Maynard, G. Diaz-Pulido, P. J. Mumby, P. A. Marshall, L. Cao, and O. Hoegh-Guldberg, 2011: Ocean acidification and warming will lower coral reef resilience. Global Change Biology17, 1798–1808, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02364.x.

Ban-Weiss, G. A., G. Bala, L. Cao, J. Pongratz, and K. Caldeira, 2011: Climate forcing and response to idealized changes in surface latent and sensible heat. Environmental Research Letters6, 034032, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034032.

Caldeira, K., and S. J. Davis, 2011: Accounting for carbon dioxide emissions: A matter of time.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences108, 8533–8534, doi:10.1073/pnas.1106517108.

MacMynowski, D. G., H.-J. Shin, and K. Caldeira, 2011: The frequency response of temperature and precipitation in a climate model. Geophysical Research Letters38, doi:10.1029/2011GL048623.

Cao, L., G. Bala, and K. Caldeira, 2011: Why is there a short-term increase in global precipitation in response to diminished CO 2 forcing? Geophysical Research Letters38, doi:10.1029/2011GL046713.

MacMynowski, D. G., D. W. Keith, K. Caldeira, and H.-J. Shin, 2011: Can we test geoengineering? Energy & Environmental Science4, 5044, doi:10.1039/c1ee01256h.




Anderson, Ray G., J Canadell, J Randerson, R Jackson, B Hungate, D Baldocchi, G Ban-Weiss, G Bonan, K Caldeira, L Cao, N Diffenbaugh, K Gurney, L Kueppers, B Law, S Luyssaert, and T O’Halloran. Biophysical considerations in forestry for climate protection. Front Ecol Environ, 9, 174-182. doi:10.1890/090179


Ban-Weiss, G. A., and K Caldeira (2010) Geoengineering as an optimization problem. ERL, 5, 034009. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034009

Caldeira, K. and D Keith (2010) The Need for Climate Engineering Research, Issues in Science and Technology, 57-62.

Cao, L., G Bala, K Caldeira, R Nemani, and G Ban-Weiss (2010) Importance of carbon dioxide physiological forcing to future climate change. PNAS, 107, 9513. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0913000107

Cao, L., and K Caldeira (2010) Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal: long-term consequences and commitment. Environmental Research Letters. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024011

Cao, L., and K Caldeira (2010) Can ocean iron fertilization mitigate ocean acidification? Climatic Change, Springer Netherlands, 99, 1-2. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9799-4

Davis, S. J., and K Caldeira (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions, PNAS, , 107, 5687-5692. doi:10.1073/pnas.0906974107

Davis, S. J., K Caldeira, and HD Matthews (2010) Future CO2 emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure, Science, 329, 1330-1333. doi:10.1073/pnas.0906974107

National Academy Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change (2010) America’s Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change.




Orr, J.C., K Caldeira, V Fabry, JP Gattuso, P Haugan, P Lehodey, S Pantoja, HO Pörtner, U Riebesell, T Trull, M Hood, W Broadgate (2009) Research priorities for understanding ocean acidification: summary from the second symposium on the ocean in a high-CO2 worldOceanography, 22, doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2009.107

Archer, C.L., and K Caldeira (2009) Global Assessment of High-Altitude Wind Power, Energies, 2(2), 307-319; doi:10.3390/en20200307

Archer D., M Eby, V Brovkin, A Ridgwell, L Cao, U Mikolajeicz, K Caldeira, K Matsumoto, G Munhoven, A Montenegro, and K Tokos (2009) Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 37, 117-134.

Bala, G., K Caldeira, R Nemani (2009) Fast versus slow response in climate change: implications for the global hydrological cycle, Climate Dynamics, 35, 423-434.

Beerling, D.J., R Berner, K Caldeira, and M Pagani (2009) The role of terrestrial plants in limiting atmospheric CO2 decline over the past 24 million years, Nature, 460, 85-89. doi:10.1038/nature081333

Cao, L., G Bala, K Caldeira, R Nemani, and G Ban-Weiss (2009) Climate response to physiological forcing of carbon dioxide simulated by the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1) and Community Land Model (CLM3.0). Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L10402. doi:10.1029/2009GL037724

Cao, L., M Eby, A Ridgwell, K Caldeira, D Archer, A Ishida, F Joos, K Matsumoto, U Mikolajewicz, A Mouchet, JC Orr, GK Plattner, R Schlitzer, K Tokos, I Totterdell, T Tschumi, Y Yamanaka Y, and A Yool. The role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2. Biogeosciences, 6, 375-390.

Matthews, D.L., L Cao, K Caldeira (2009) Sensitivity of ocean acidification to geoengineered climate stabilization. Geophysical Research Letters,. 36, L10706, doi:10.1029/2009GL037488/

Silverman, J., B Lazar, L Cao, K Caldeira, and J Erez (2009) Coral reefs may start dissolving when atmospheric CO2 doubles, Geophysical Research Letters 36, L05606. doi:10.1029/2008GL036282




Adams, E.E., K Caldeira (2008) Ocean Storage Of CO2, Elements 4 (5):319-324, DOI: 10.2113/gselements.4.5.319

Archer, C.L., K Caldeira (2008) Historical trends in the jet streams, Geophysical Research Letters 35. doi: 10.1029/2008GL033614

Buesseler, K.O., S.C. Doney, D.M. Karl, P.W. Boyd, K. Caldeira, F. Chai, K.H. Coale, H.J.W. de Baar, P.G. KS Falkowski, RS Johnson, AF Lampitt, SWA Michaels. VS Naqvi, S Takeda, AJ. Watson (2008) Environment - Ocean iron fertilization - Moving forward in a sea of uncertainty, Science 319, 162-162.

Caldeira, K., L Wood (2008) Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 366, 4039-4056. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0132

Cao, L., K Caldeira (2008) Atmospheric CO2 stabilization and ocean acidification, Geophysical Research Letters 35. doi: 10.1029/2008GL035072

Griffith, E.M.; A Paytan, K Caldeira, TD Bullen; E Thomas (2008) A Dynamic Marine Calcium Cycle During the Past 28 Million Years. Science, 322, 1671-1674. doi: 10.1126/Science.1163614

Jackson, R. B., JT Randerson, JG Canadell, RG Anderson, R Avissar, DD Baldocchi, GB Bonan, K Caldeira, NS Diffenbaugh, CB Field, BA Hungate, EG Jobbagy, LM Kueppers, MD Nosetto, DE Pataki (2008) Protecting climate with forests. Environmental Research Letters, 3, 44006.

Matthews, H.D., K Caldeira (2008) Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 35. doi: 10.1029/2007GL032388

Schwartzman, D; K Caldeira, A Pavlov (2008) Cyanobacterial emergence at 2.8 gya and greenhouse feedbacks. Astrobiology, 8,187-203. doi: 10.1089/ast.2006.0074

Zeebe, R.E., K Caldeira (2008) Close mass balance of long-term carbon fluxes from ice-core CO2 and ocean chemistry records. Nature Geoscience, 1, 312-315. doi: 10.1038/ngeo185

Zeebe, R.E., JC Zachos, K Caldeira, T Tyrrell (2008) Oceans - Carbon emissions and acidification. Science, 321, 51-52. doi: 10.1126/science.1159124




Bala G., K Caldeira, M Wickett (2007) Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 6550-6555. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0608998104

Caldeira, K., D Archer, JP Barry, RGJ Bellerby, PG Brewer, L Cao, AG Dickson, SC Doney, H Elderfield, VJ Fabry, RA Feely, JP Gattuso, PM Haugan, O Hoegh-Guldberg, AK Jain, JA Kleypas, C Langdon, JC Orr, A Ridgwell, CL Sabine, BA Seibel, Y Shirayama, C Turley, AJ Watson, RE Zeebe (2007) Comment on "Modern-age buildup of CO2 and its effects on seawater acidity and salinity" by Hugo A. Loaiciga. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L18608.

Caldeira, K. (2007) What Corals are Dying to Tell Us About CO2 and Ocean Acidification, Oceanography 20, 188-195.

Cao L., K Caldeira, AK Jain (2007) Effects of carbon dioxide and climate change on ocean acidification and carbonate mineral saturation. Geophysical Research Letters, 34,L05607.

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., PJ Mumby, AJ Hooten, RS Steneck, P Greenfield, E Gomez, DR Harvell, PF Sale, AJ Edwards, K Caldeira, N Knowlton, CM Eakin, R Iglesias-Prieto, N Muthiga, RH Bradbury, A Dubi and ME Hatziolos (2007) Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science, 318.

Lutz, M. J., K Caldeira, RB Dunbar, MJ Behrenfeld (2007) Seasonal rhythms of net primary production and particulate organic carbon flux to depth describe the efficiency of biological pump in the global ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C1001. doi:10.1029/2006JC003706

Matthews, H.D., K Caldeira (2007) Transient climate-carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,104, 9949-9954.

Najjar, R. G., X Jin, F Louanchi, O Aumont, K Caldeira, SC Doney, JC Dutay, M Follows, N Gruber, F Joos, K Lindsay, E Maier-Reimer, RJ Matear, K Matsumoto, P Monfray, A Mouchet, JC Orr, GK Plattner, J L Sarmiento, R Schlitzer, RD Slater, MF Weirig, Y Yamanaka, A Yool (2007) Impact of circulation on export production, dissolved organic matter, and dissolved oxygen in the ocean: Results from Phase II of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 21, GB3007. doi:10.1029/2006GB002857

Rau, G.H., KG Knauss, WH Langer, K Caldeira (2007) Reducing energy-related CO2 emissions using accelerated weathering of limestone. Energy, 32, 1471-1477.

Roberts, B.W., SH Shepard, K Caldeira, ME Cannon, DG Eccles, AJ Grenier, JF Freidlin (2007) Harnessing high-altitude wind power. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, 22, 136-144.




Bala, G., K Caldeira, A Mirin, M Wickett., C Delire, TJ Philips (2006) Biogeophysical effects of CO2 fertilization on global climate. Tellus B, 58, 620-627.

Caldeira, K. (2006) Forests, climate, and silicate rock weathering. Journal of Geochemical Exploration, 88, 419-422.

Pagani, M., K Caldeira, D Archer, JC Zachos (2006) An ancient carbon mystery. Science, 314, 1556-1557.




Bala, G., K Caldeira, A Mirin, M Wickett, C. Delire (2005) Multicentury changes to the global climate and carbon cycle: Results from a coupled climate and carbon cycle model. Journal of Climate, 18, 4531-4544.

Bala, G., S. Thompson, A. Mirin, M. Wickett, K. Caldeira and C. Delire Increase of carbon cycle feedback with climate sensitivity: results from a coupled climate and carbon cycle model Tellus B 57 (2) 153 -- 163 DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2005.00135.x, 2005

Caldeira, K., ME Wickett (2005) Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research (Oceans), 110, C09S04. doi:10.1029/2004JC002671, 2005

Gibbard, S., K. Caldeira, G. Bala, T.J. Philips and M. Wickett, Climate effects of global land cover change. Geophysical Research Letters 32 (23) L23705, 2005

Grumet, N.S., PB Duffy, ME Wickett, K Caldeira, RB Dunbar (2005) Intrabasin comparison of surface radiocarbon levels in the Indian Ocean between coral records and three-dimensional global ocean models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 19, GB2010.

Rampino, M.R., K Caldeira (2005) Major perturbation of ocean chemistry and a “Strangelove Ocean” after the end-Permian mass extinction. Terra Nova, 17, 554-559.




Doney, S.C., K Lindsay K, Caldeira, JM Campin, H Drange, JC Dutay, M. Follows, Y Gao, A Gnanadesikan, N Gruber, A Ishida, F Joos, G Madec, E Maier-Reimer, JC Marshall, RJ Matear, P Monfray, A Mouchet, R Najjar, J C Orr, GK Plattner, J Sarmiento, R Schlitzer, R Slater, IJ Totterdell, MF Weirig, Y Yamanaka, A Yool (2004) Evaluating global ocean carbon models: The importance of realistic physics. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 18, GB3017.

Matsumoto, K., JL Sarmiento, RM Key, O Aumont, JL Bullister, K Caldeira, JM Campin, SC Doney, H Drange, JC Dutay, M Follows, Y Gao, A Gnanadesikan, N Gruber, A Ishida, F Joos, K Lindsay, E Maier-Reimer, JC Marshall, RJ Matear, P Monfray, A Mouchet, R Najjar, GK Plattner, R Schlitzer, R Slater, PS Swathi, IJ Totterdell, MF Weirig, Y Yamanaka, A Yool, JC Orr (2004) Evaluation of ocean carbon cycle models with data-based metrics. Geophysical Research Letters 31, L007303.

Mueller, K., L Cao, K Caldeira, A Jain (2004) Differing methods of accounting ocean carbon sequestration efficiency. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 109, C12018. doi: 10.1029/2003JC002252

Thompson, S.L., G Bala, AK Mirin, K Caldeira, C Delire, J Milovich, M Wickett, D Erickson (2004) Quantifying the effects of CO2-fertilized vegetation on future global climate and carbon dynamics. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L23211.




Bala, G., K Caldeira, PB Duffy (2003) Geoengineering Earth’s radiation balance to mitigate climate change from a quadrupling of CO2. Global and Planetary Change 37, 157–168.

Caldeira, K., AK Jain, MI Hoffert (2003) Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the need for energy without CO2 emission. Science, 299, 2052-2054.

Caldeira, K., and ME Wickett (2003) Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH. Nature, 425, 365-365.

Fallon, S.J., TP Guilderson, K Caldeira (2003) Carbon isotope constraints on vertical mixing and air–sea CO2 exchange. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 2289.

Herzog, H., K Caldeira, J Reilly (2003) An issue of permanence: Assessing the effectiveness of ocean carbon sequestration. Climatic Change, 59, 293–310.

Ridgwell, A,J,, MJ Kennedy, K Caldeira (2003) Carbonate deposition, climate stability, and Neoproterozoic ice ages. Science, 302, 859–862.

Wickett, M.E., K Caldeira, PB Duffy (2003) Effect of horizontal grid resolution on simulations of oceanic CFC-11 uptake and direct injection of anthropogenic CO2. Journal of Geophysical Research (Oceans), 108.




Bala, G., S Thompson, P Duffy, K Caldeira, C Delire. (2002) Impact of geoengineering schemes on the terrestrial biosphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 2061.doi: 10.1029/2002GL015911

Caldeira, K., ME Wickett, PB Duffy (2002) Depth, radiocarbon and the effectiveness of direct CO2 injection as an ocean carbon sequestration strategy. Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 13-1-13-4. doi: 10.1029/2001GL014234

Dutay, J.C., JL Bullister, SC Doney, JC Orr, R Najjar, K Caldeira, JM Champin, H Drange, M Follows, Y Gao, N Gruber, MW Hecht, A Ishida, F Joos, K Lindsay, G Madec, E Maier-Reimer, JC Marshall, RJ Matear, P Monfray, GK Plattner, J Sarmiento, R Schlitzer, R Slater, IJ Totterdell, MF Weirig, Y Yamanaka, A Yool (2002) Evaluation of ocean model ventilation with CFC-11: comparison of 13 global ocean models. Ocean Modeling, 4, 89–120.

Hoffert, M.I., K Caldeira, G Benford, DR Criswell, C Green, H Herzog, J. Katzenberger, HS Kheshgi, KS Lackner, JS Lewis, W Manheimer, JC Mankins, G Marland, ME Mauel, LJ Perkins, ME Schlesinger, T Volk, TML Wigley (2002) Advanced technology paths to global climate stability: Energy for a greenhouse planet. Science, 295, 981–987.




Bala, G., PB Duffy, K Caldeira (2001) Land use changes and Northern Hemisphere coolin., Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 291-294.

Herzog, H., K. Caldeira and E. Adams, Carbon Sequestration via Direct Injection. In J H Steele, S A Thorpe and K K Turekian (eds) Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences Vol. 1, pp 408 - 414. London, UK: Academic Press, 2001




Bala G., K Caldeira (2000) Geoengineering Earth’s radiation balance to mitigate CO2-induced climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 2141-2144.

Caldeira, K., PB Duffy (2000) The role of the Southern Ocean in uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. Science, 287, 620–622.

Caldeira, K., GH Rau (2000) Accelerating carbonate dissolution to sequester carbon dioxide in the ocean: Geochemical implications. Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 225–228.




Caldeira, K., R Berner (1999) Seawater pH and atmospheric carbon dioxide (Technical comment). Science, 286, 2043a.

Hoffert, M.I., K Caldeira, C Covey, PB Duffy, B Santer (1999) Solar variability and anthropogenic climate change (reply). Nature, 401, 764–764.

Kerrick, D.M., K Caldeira (1999) Was the Himalayan orogen a climatically-significant coupled source and sink for atmospheric CO2 during the Cenozoic? Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 173, 195–203.

Rau, G.H., K Caldeira (1999) Enhanced carbonate dissolution: A means of sequestering waste CO2 as ocean bicarbonate. Energy Conversion and Management, 40, 1803–1813.




Bickle, M., K Caldeira, RA Berner (1998) The need for mass balance and feedback in the geochemical carbon cycle: Reply. Geology, 26, 478-478.

Caldeira, K., GH Rau, PB Duffy (1998) Predicted net efflux of radiocarbon from the ocean and increase in atmospheric radiocarbon content. Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 3811–3814.

Caldeira, K., PB Duffy (1998) Sensitivity of simulated CFC-11 distributions in a global ocean model to the treatment of salt rejected during sea-ice formation. Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 1003-1006.

Hoffert M.I., K Caldeira, AK Jain, EF Haites, LDD Harvey, SD Potter, ME Schlesinger, SH Schneider, RG Watts, TML Wigley, DJ Wuebbles (1998) Energy implications of future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content. Nature, 395, 881–884.




Berner, R.A., K Caldeira (1997) The need for mass balance and feedback in the geochemical carbon cycle. Geology, 25, 955–956.

Duffy, P. B., K Caldeira (1997) Sensitivity of simulated salinity in a three-dimensional ocean model to upper-ocean transport of salt from sea-ice formation. Geophysical Research Letters 24, 1323–1326.




Duffy, P.B., K Caldeira (1995) A three-dimensional model calculation of ocean uptake of bomb 14C and implications for the global budget of bomb 14C. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 9, 373–375.

Duffy, P.B., P Eltgroth, A J Bourgeois, K Caldeira (1995) Effect of improved subgrid scale transport of tracers on uptake of bomb radiocarbon in the GFDL ocean general circulation model. Geophysical Research Letters, 22, 1065–1068.

Kerrick, D.M., MA McKibbon, TM Seward, K Caldeira (1995) Convective hydrothermal CO2 emissions from high heat flow regions. Chemical Geology, 121, 285–293.




Kerrick, D.M., K Caldeira (1994) Post-125 Ma carbon storage associated with continent-continent collision — comment. Geology, 22, 381–382.

Rampino, M.R., K Caldeira (1994) The Goldilocks problem: climatic evolution and long-term habitability of terrestrial planets. Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 32, 83–114.




Caldeira, K., JF Kasting (1993) Insensitivity of global warming potentials to carbon dioxide emission scenarios. Nature, 366, 251–253.

Caldeira, K., MR Rampino (1993) Aftermath of the end-Cretaceous mass extinction — possible biogeochemical stabilization of the carbon cycle and climate. Paleoceanography, 8, 515-525.




Caldeira, K., JF Kasting (1992) Susceptibility of the early Earth to irreversible glaciation caused by CO2 clouds. Nature, 359, 226–228.

Caldeira, K., JF Kasting (1992) Life span of the biosphere revisited. Nature, 360, 721–723.

Rampino, M.R., K Caldeira (1992) Antipodal hotspots on the Earth. Geophysical Research Letters, 19, 2011–2014.




Caldeira, K., MR Rampino (1991) The mid-Cretaceous super plume, carbon dioxide, and global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 18, 987-990.




Caldeira, K., MR Rampino (1990) Carbon dioxide emissions from Deccan volcanism and a K/T boundary greenhouse effect. Geophysical Research Letters, 17, 1299-1302.




Caldeira, K. (1989) Evolutionary pressures on planktonic production of atmospheric sulphur. Nature, 337, 632-634.