Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

Graph comparing the raw and observationally-informed climate model projections from Brown and Caldeira (2017, Nature)

The climate models that project greater amounts of warming this century are the ones that best align with observations of the current climate, according to a new paper from Carnegie’s Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira published by Nature. Their findings suggest that the models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, on average, may be underestimating future warming.

Carnegie Press Release

Patrick Brown's Blog Post

Paper in Nature

Washington Post Article: The most accurate climate change models predict the most alarming consequences, study finds
By Chris Mooney December 6, 2017